Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aff…7035 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,550 (+9%) realized +$4,550 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$2,229per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,424
7 days+$1,424
14 days+$1,424
30 days+$1,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$4,120
sports 10% +$322
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.5% +18.0% 100% 75% +1.2%
≤30d 4 +30.5% +18.0% 100% 75% +1.2%
≤90d 16 +6.3% -3.8% 62% 50% -6.4%
all 23 -2.6% -11.9% 52% 43% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 43% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 26% -11.1%
15% -28.0% 22% -19.7%
20% -35.1% 22% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,164 vs −$866 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage118d
Avg bet$2,229
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $112 +$24 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4,304 +$633 +15%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $7,624 +$766 +10%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $590 +$70 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 17 $6,724 −$2,967 -44%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $2,462 +$20 +1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 01 $345 −$330 -96%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $3,870 +$1,066 +28%
EdgeX FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 01 $2,584 −$2,382 -92%
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 01 $3,462 −$2,870 -83%
Abstract FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 25 $155 +$80 +52%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $2,871 −$465 -16%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 24 $129 +$171 +132%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $4,094 +$7,614 +186%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 19 $725 −$5 -1%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $1,875 +$2,508 +134%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? Mar 04 $1,097 −$82 -7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs SemperFi Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $7,803 +$1,021 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $96 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $4,937 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $430 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $169 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $288 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $145 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $187 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $110 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $240 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $52 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $200 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $115 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $770 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $269 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $11 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 546 history records