Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5afe…af69 sports 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,653 (+1%) realized +$4,564 · open −$1,911
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%129W / 30L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2,218per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$14,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,552
7 days+$2,552
14 days−$8,155
30 days−$7,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% +$6,161
other 23% −$8,929
crypto 15% −$6,859
world 14% +$2,987
sports 12% +$3,843
tech 7% +$2,354
finance 3% +$2,236
economics 2% +$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.4% +22.5% 100% 100% +22.5%
≤30d 52 +11.9% +1.3% 83% 48% -22.0%
≤90d 93 +5.5% -4.6% 84% 40% -10.6%
all 159 +2.2% -7.5% 81% 30% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 30% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 14% -17.2%
15% -24.4% 8% -25.2%
20% -31.8% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,871) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$1,218 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$14,957
Realized+$4,564
Unrealized−$1,911
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses129 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage473d
Avg bet$2,218
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 88¢ 86¢ $9,775 $9,608 −$167 (-2%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes 93¢ 70¢ $7,093 $5,349 −$1,744 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $7,199 +$2,552 +35%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13,935 −$13,900 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,012 +$421 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $314 +$186 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $256 +$744 +291%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $144 +$856 +596%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 12 $5,607 +$2,261 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $607 −$600 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $815 −$810 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $118 −$115 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $1,008 +$338 +34%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $303 −$300 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 10 $301 +$28 +9%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 10 $301 +$32 +11%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi Jun 10 $301 +$36 +12%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 10 $301 +$54 +18%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 10 $302 +$60 +20%
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava Jun 07 $301 +$40 +13%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 07 $301 +$40 +13%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $302 +$93 +31%
Will Nara Club win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $301 +$36 +12%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $302 +$103 +34%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $1,001 +$51 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $301 +$30 +10%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $300 +$15 +5%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 06 $301 +$22 +7%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Taro Daniel Jun 06 $301 +$32 +11%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 06 $301 +$40 +13%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $302 +$92 +30%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $601 +$42 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $2,305 +$202 +9%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $301 +$40 +13%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 05 $301 +$44 +14%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 05 $302 +$103 +34%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $1,003 +$108 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 03 $301 +$25 +8%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 03 $1,000 +$15 +2%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm Jun 03 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Eliot Spizzirri vs Frances Tiafoe May 26 $301 +$32 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Emerson Jones vs Iga Swiatek May 25 $300 +$6 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Cameroon vs Botswana May 25 $1,001 +$22 +2%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Rwanda May 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Danka Kovinic vs Xiyu Wang May 25 $300 +$11 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Gea May 25 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $302 +$103 +34%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $401 +$40 +10%
ITF Hurghada: Ulyana Hrabavets vs Aya El Sayed May 24 $199 −$198 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Oksana Selekhmeteva May 24 $301 +$22 +7%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Vamos vs Team Flash (BO3) - MPL Malaysi May 24 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Chongqing Tonglianglong FC end in a draw? May 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $9,810 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $9,751 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $7,418 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5,013 9d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 95¢ $4,771 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $6,010 9d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $607 9d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $815 9d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $118 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $314 9d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 74¢ $705 9d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 75¢ $302 9d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 71¢ $303 10d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa BUY Daria Snigur 83¢ $302 13d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jazmin Ortenzi BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 89¢ $301 13d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman BUY Shuai Zhang 90¢ $301 14d
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Yunchaokete Bu 84¢ $301 14d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 98¢ $10 14d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 98¢ $1,925 14d
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo BUY Sebastian Baez 88¢ $301 15d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito BUY Antonia Ruzic 91¢ $301 15d
Heilbronn: Henri Squire vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 88¢ $301 15d
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 15d
Will Nara Club win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 15d
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,956.95 · official $14,957.72 (match) · 1853 history records