Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5afd…7e8d
world · 38 markets active 218d ago
2.0score
+$92,110 +72%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$92,110 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized+$92,110
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
Avg bet$3,360
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Iran on June 30? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? No 2¢ 0¢ $530 $0 −$530 (-100%)
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? No 30¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? No 15¢ 0¢ $5,829 $0 −$5,829 (-100%)
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before August? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US strike on Iran on June  24? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Iranian coup attempt before July? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31? Nov 06 $200 −$18 -9%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before August? Jul 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jul 02 $40 −$19 -47%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jun 29 $27,997 −$13,392 -48%
Iranian coup attempt before July? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by June 27? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 30? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 24 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 24 $2,900 −$200 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jun 24 $1,500 −$569 -38%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jun 24 $3,400 −$1,154 -34%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Friday June  27? Jun 23 $300 −$25 -8%
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before July? Jun 23 $200 −$77 -39%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jun 23 $550 +$36 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $20,870 −$7,804 -37%
Another US military action against Iran by June 30? Jun 23 $150 +$26 +17%
Another US military action against Iran by Monday? Jun 23 $400 +$474 +119%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Jun 23 $350 +$70 +20%
US strike on Iran on June  24? Jun 23 $200 −$34 -17%
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran declare war on Israel before July? Jun 23 $250 −$250 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $9,040 +$14,671 +162%
Another US military action against Iran by Sunday? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 19 $200 −$106 -53%
Israel military action against Iran before June? Jun 19 $786 −$457 -58%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 13 $16,000 +$9,749 +61%
Israel military action against Iran by Friday? Jun 13 $20,691 +$89,805 +434%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 11 $5,570 +$1,820 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 11 $4,800 +$464 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jun 11 $10,425 −$166 -2%
Astros vs. Rangers May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Argentina before July? May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 100% +$92,121
crypto 0% −$3
sports 0% −$3
other 0% −$3
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $182 217d
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $200 218d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before August? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 344d
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 344d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 1¢ $137 347d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 1¢ $40 347d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 1¢ $30 347d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 1¢ $50 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $100 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $50 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 1¢ $131 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 1¢ $126 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $60 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $50 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $50 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $100 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $100 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 2¢ $200 348d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 38¢ $1,140 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? SELL No 39¢ $3,098 349d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 49¢ $1,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 50¢ $2,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 56¢ $2,997 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 59¢ $2,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 60¢ $2,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 60¢ $2,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 60¢ $1,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 59¢ $1,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 59¢ $2,000 351d
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? BUY No 56¢ $1,000 351d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-40.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 38 -34.1% -40.3% 26% 18% +79.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.3% 18% +79.8%
10% ← realistic here -46.0% 13% +62.6%
15% -51.3% 11% +46.9%
20% -56.0% 11% +32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records