Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5afd…8caf world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$2
politics 21% +$1
other 16% −$4
tech 14% +$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 6% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 6% -9.9%
all 34 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 9% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 9% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage422d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $90 −$3 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $39 −$3 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $13 +$3 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $77 +$4 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $146 +$6 +4%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 -1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 9–16? May 14 $2 $0 +26%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 24 $1 $0 +24%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 21 $161 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $14 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $4 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $28 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 85¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.91 · official $39.13 (match) · 104 history records