Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5afc…2995 other 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$53 (-6%) realized −$132 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate51%46W / 45L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$579
sports 27% +$29
crypto 7% −$46
weather 2% +$1
culture 2% +$1
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 38% +72.3%
≤30d 91 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 38% +72.3%
≤90d 91 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 38% +72.3%
all 91 -4.1% -13.3% 51% 38% +72.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 38% +72.3%
10% -21.6% 31% +55.8%
15% -29.1% 23% +40.7%
20% -36.1% 21% +26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +90% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$441
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses46 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions68
Markets (closed)91 / 159
History coverage122d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? No 71¢ $3 $77 +$73 (+2267%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? No 88¢ 91¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 43¢ 65¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+51%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 34¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 95¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 30¢ 32¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 66¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Florian Wirtz score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-39%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 91¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 76¢ 71¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 93¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Egypt leading at halftime? No 45¢ 86¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 41¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 +$644 +927%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +18%
Set 2 Winner: Parry vs Seidel Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 −$4 -12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 +$5 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Spread: Tunisia (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 −$28 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +61%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$1 +20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$6 -45%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$9 -50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 −$13 -27%
Overwatch: Team Liquid vs LuneX Gaming (BO3) - OCS North America Stage Jun 14 $4 −$1 -34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +158%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +381%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +180%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$45 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +75%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$1 -41%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 23¢ $2 4m
Will Egypt be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $8 4m
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 45¢ $3 4m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY No 73¢ $3 4m
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No $1 4m
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No $2 4m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 11¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 78¢ $3 22m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $12 25m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 87¢ $3 31m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 90¢ $3 31m
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 90¢ $12 31m
Will St. Louis Shock finish in 1st place at the Major League Picklebal BUY No 78¢ $1 33m
Will Columbus Sliders finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleba BUY No 78¢ $1 33m
Will Los Angeles Mad Drops finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 86¢ $1 33m
Will Palm Beach Royals finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickleb BUY No 93¢ $1 33m
Will Utah Black Diamonds finish in 1st place at the Major League Pickl BUY No 94¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $1 33m
Will Brooklyn Pickleball Team finish in 1st place at the Major League BUY No 82¢ $1 33m
Will Miami Pickleball Club finish in 1st place at the Major League Pic BUY No 98¢ $1 33m
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 45m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 22¢ $1 47m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 40¢ $1 49m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $1 52m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 39¢ $1 53m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $2 59m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 52¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 43¢ $3 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 88¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.29 · official $441.30 (match) · 371 history records