Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5A 0x5afb…6293 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$4,510 (-26%) realized −$4,701 · open +$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate72%81W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$142
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$5,141
other 6% +$212
politics 1% +$60
tech 1% −$88
sports 1% +$75
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +24.9% +13.0% 64% 53% -11.7%
≤30d 64 +24.9% +13.0% 64% 53% -11.7%
≤90d 67 +23.4% +11.6% 64% 52% -12.1%
all 113 +12.3% +1.6% 72% 50% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 50% -38.3%
10% -8.1% 23% -44.2%
15% -17.0% 13% -49.6%
20% -25.1% 9% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$204 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized−$4,701
Unrealized+$191
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses81 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)113 / 119
History coverage119d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 61¢ $100 $347 +$247 (+247%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $203 −$112 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $215 −$55 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$9 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$28 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $408 −$37 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $206 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $204 −$170 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $112 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$17 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$82 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$20 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $121 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $112 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$14 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$34 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $86 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $14 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $103 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $128 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $111 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $791.05 · official $791.05 (match) · 367 history records