Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:18:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5af9…8579 politics 15 markets active 10d ago coverage 1018d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$186 (+15%) realized −$65 · open +$251
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$238
politics 32% −$46
sports 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 14 -20.9% -28.4% 43% 43% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 43% -24.0%
10% -35.2% 43% -31.3%
15% -41.5% 36% -37.9%
20% -47.2% 36% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1018d coverage
Net worth$1,036
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$251
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1018d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $785 $1,036 +$251 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 06 $147 −$147 -100%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 27 $97 +$61 +62%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 11 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $11 −$6 -58%
Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 25 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 22 $78 +$44 +57%
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher Oct 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump and Biden both win nomination? Oct 24 $1 +$1 +138%
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win? Oct 24 $15 +$4 +25%
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? Oct 24 $24 +$13 +54%
BTC above $27,000 at end of September? Oct 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Inter Miami make playoffs? Oct 23 $2 −$2 -100%
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? Sep 10 $1 +$1 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $806 10d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 44¢ $147 197d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 50¢ $91 237d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 54¢ $56 237d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 409d
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 409d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? SELL Yes $5 409d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY Yes $10 409d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 21¢ $10 409d
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? BUY Yes $1 409d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 21¢ $1 409d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes 21¢ $1 409d
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the BUY Yes 29¢ $97 482d
Will US annual inflation be 2.6% or less in December? BUY Yes $3 531d
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? SELL Yes $0 574d
Will Álvaro Delgado win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 577d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 64¢ $78 605d
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 975d
BTC above $27,000 at end of September? BUY No 84¢ $2 1016d
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Sergio Massa win? BUY No 80¢ $15 1025d
Will Inter Miami make playoffs? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 1026d
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1026d
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 1028d
Will NASA record 2023 as the hottest year on record? (1.03°C or higher BUY No 14¢ $3 1028d
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? BUY Yes $1 1028d
Trump and Biden both win nomination? BUY No 42¢ $1 1028d
Argentina Presidential Election: Will Javier Milei win? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1028d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.42 · official $1,036.42 (match) · 47 history records