Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5af8…c0c0 world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$8
other 13% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 18% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 11 -2.0% -11.3% 18% 0% -11.6%
all 18 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -11.0%
10% -18.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -25.9% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage484d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 90¢ $33 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $61 −$6 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $40 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Jun 27 $6 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $5 $0 +2%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 04 $7 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $31 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $9 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $5 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $34 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $39 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $6 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $7 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $29 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $11 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $40 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $24 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $16 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $4 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $36 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 51 history records