Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5af6…842e other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-23%) realized −$123 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$71
sports 33% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -68.6% -71.6% 12% 12% -60.6%
≤30d 8 -68.6% -71.6% 12% 12% -60.6%
≤90d 8 -68.6% -71.6% 12% 12% -60.6%
all 8 -68.6% -71.6% 12% 12% -60.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -71.6% 12% -60.6%
10% ← realistic here -74.3% 12% -64.4%
15% -76.8% 12% -67.8%
20% -79.0% 12% -71.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$18 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$123
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 53¢ 91¢ $56 $96 +$40 (+72%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 14¢ 32¢ $32 $72 +$40 (+125%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$21 +59%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $57 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $27 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $28 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $7 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 15¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 4h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 7h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.86 · official $178.86 (match) · 39 history records