Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:52:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5A 0x5af3…1534 other 714 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+3%) realized +$270 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%348W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$7
sports 40% +$125
world 1% +$14
finance 0% −$37
crypto 0% −$7
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +36.6% +23.6% 80% 80% +27.5%
≤30d 42 +11.3% +0.7% 48% 48% +1.4%
≤90d 385 +0.4% -9.1% 49% 48% -9.7%
all 701 +2.2% -7.6% 50% 48% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 48% -8.7%
10% -16.4% 47% -17.4%
15% -24.5% 42% -25.4%
20% -31.9% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized+$270
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses348 / 353
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions13
Markets (closed)701 / 714
History coverage153d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 52¢ 52¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the NYSE develop its own chain? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$14 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$8 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 −$7 -46%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $15 +$10 +66%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $15 −$3 -22%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Molde FK vs. Sandefjord Fotball end in a draw? May 30 $2 −$2 -88%
Will IK Sirius win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 +$14 +91%
AIK vs. IK Sirius: Both Teams to Score May 30 $20 −$7 -37%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $15 −$11 -70%
Will Fredrikstad FK win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25? May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $25 +$26 +101%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 +$20 +133%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 +$9 +37%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $35 +$13 +38%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 +$42 +589%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $33 +$26 +79%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$9 -88%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5 May 24 $15 −$6 -42%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to Score May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $35 +$13 +38%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 May 22 $15 +$9 +59%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: Both Teams to Score May 22 $10 +$9 +93%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $30 +$17 +54%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-03-22? May 20 $35 −$29 -83%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $25 +$25 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $15 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $26 41h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $15 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 43h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $6 43h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $21 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $17 44h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 45h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 45h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $15 6d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $15 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 14d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.79 · official $181.79 (match) · 1630 history records