Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5af0…ea2e politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 37L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$9
other 19% −$4
sports 14% −$2
world 14% −$2
tech 13% −$3
culture 4% −$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$735) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage86d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $1,098 $0 +0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,115 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $1,120 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $1,190 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $41 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma May 09 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $679 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 02 $659 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $672 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 02 $693 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in March? Mar 28 $160 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $75 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 2h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $38 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 2d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,138 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,101 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $910 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $243 3d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,155 3d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $59 3d
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 3d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.23 · official $39.23 (match) · 123 history records