Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:46:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5af0…5c59
politics · 149 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$6,839 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,835 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$142
Realized+$6,835
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses82 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)103 / 149
History coverage196d
Avg bet$767
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 46 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 78¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 81¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 58¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? No 87¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $70 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $83 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 −$4 -82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $4 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $1 $0 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $2 $0 +9%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 $0 +2%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $4 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 08 $3 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 08 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 28 $2 $0 +2%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut less than $50b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bologna win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by March 31, 2026? Apr 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Apr 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by March 31? Apr 19 $2 $0 +11%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Apr 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Apr 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $2 $0 +1%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 06 $2 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 06 $2 $0 +4%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks? Feb 06 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Feb 06 $2 $0 +9%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 06 $3 $0 +1%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Jan 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pr Jan 19 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$6,837
culture 1% $0
world 0% −$4
other 0% +$3
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 9m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $1 55m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 82¢ $0 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.2% -5.8% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 20 -11.3% -19.7% 75% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 40 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 8% -9.8%
all 103 -3.9% -13.1% 80% 7% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 7% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 3% -13.3%
15% -29.0% 2% -21.6%
20% -35.9% 1% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.83 · official $139.34 · 2144 history records