Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5aeb…42d4
sports · 829 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$580 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$760 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$760
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses288 / 540
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)828 / 829
History coverage124d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 828 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$81
14 days−$201
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Spurs 33¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Rockets 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5 Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Spurs Spurs 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Spurs 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 Yes 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Timberwolves 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) Spurs 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 29.5 Yes 41¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 206.5 Over 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 20.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Thunder 37¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Nuggets 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 9¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Yes 48¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 219.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Lakers 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) Cavaliers 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $15 +$19 +124%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $20 −$1 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $28 +$27 +95%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $15 +$15 +97%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $18 +$20 +109%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $10 +$13 +125%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 11 $15 +$37 +242%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 117.5 Jun 11 $12 +$28 +231%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 09 $15 +$16 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 Jun 09 $15 +$35 +226%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$33 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $19 +$32 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 08 $8 −$8 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $35 +$44 +128%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $8 −$8 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $6 −$6 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$764
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $15 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 58¢ $19 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 28¢ $9 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 25¢ $15 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $3 17h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 19¢ $15 17h
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 36¢ $20 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 18h
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Spurs 40¢ $10 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 121.5 BUY Over 22¢ $12 27h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $12 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 124.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 34h
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $12 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 34h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 37h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $12 37h
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $16 37h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $8 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Spurs 37¢ $10 3d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 44¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 3d
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $15 4d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -19.4% -27.0% 31% 31% -22.3%
≤30d 161 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 34% -19.9%
≤90d 645 -23.7% -30.9% 29% 29% -22.8%
all 828 -12.4% -20.8% 35% 35% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 35% -16.7%
10% -28.4% 34% -24.7%
15% -35.3% 34% -32.0%
20% -41.6% 33% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.17 · official $4.17 (match) · 1761 history records