Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5A 0x5ae4…714c sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,607 (+32%) realized +$10,607 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%39W / 28L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$328est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,826
7 days+$4,879
14 days+$6,880
30 days+$9,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$7,649
other 19% +$1,666
world 0% −$28
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +39.4% +26.1% 74% 74% +33.8%
≤30d 67 +19.9% +8.4% 58% 55% +17.0%
≤90d 67 +19.9% +8.4% 58% 55% +17.0%
all 67 +19.9% +8.4% 58% 55% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 55% +17.0%
10% -1.9% 52% +5.8%
15% -11.4% 48% -4.4%
20% -20.1% 43% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$671) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$454 vs −$302 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$10,607
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses39 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$328
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage25d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $522 +$178 +34%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $43 +$57 +133%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $1,404 +$1,227 +87%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $172 +$228 +133%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $268 +$432 +161%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $910 +$490 +54%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $360 +$440 +122%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,610 +$990 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $587 −$584 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $610 +$445 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $248 +$152 +61%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $290 +$210 +72%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $1,332 +$667 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $813 −$806 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $471 +$538 +114%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $398 +$367 +92%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $477 −$475 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $560 +$477 +85%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $650 +$650 +100%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $293 +$76 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $148 +$37 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $443 +$7 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $921 +$133 +14%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $161 +$439 +273%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1,017 −$1,008 -99%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $425 −$75 -18%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $448 +$452 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,659 +$1,344 +81%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $68 −$66 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $284 −$280 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $725 +$19 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $964 +$401 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $31 −$30 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $1,240 +$760 +61%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $405 +$271 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $525 −$514 -98%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score May 31 $38 −$38 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $164 +$636 +388%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $846 +$156 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $354 +$246 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $533 +$255 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $729 −$729 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $685 +$646 +94%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $671 +$829 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 29 $842 +$373 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Frances Tiafoe May 28 $553 −$553 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $73 49m
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 99¢ $93 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $153 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $96 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $2 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $82 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $97 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $245 17h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 18¢ $18 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 20¢ $102 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $209 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $25 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $1 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 50¢ $92 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 47¢ $421 20h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 48¢ $536 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $116 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $172 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $64 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $88 36h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $910 36h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes $29 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $260 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $176 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.56 · official $336.56 (match) · 407 history records