Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae4…6974 crypto 8 markets active 510d ago coverage 52d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30,252 (-173%) realized −$30,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,191per market
Trades / day67.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$7,819
crypto 49% +$2,122
other 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-68.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 8 -64.8% -68.2% 12% 12% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.2% 12% -39.1%
10% -71.2% 12% -44.9%
15% ← realistic here -74.0% 12% -50.2%
20% -76.6% 12% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
435.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,295 vs −$1,718 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$2,191
Trades / day67.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? Feb 03 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? Jan 21 $355 −$268 -75%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 18 $7,980 −$6,944 -87%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? Jan 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 10 $4,382 +$6,295 +144%
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? Jan 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Jan 07 $607 −$607 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,173 510d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $87 523d
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office? SELL Yes 2¢ $43 525d
Hamas leadership out of Qatar before Trump in office? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 525d
Was Trump hacked? SELL Yes 1¢ $1,036 526d
Was Trump hacked? BUY Yes 4¢ $7,980 526d
Will Biden pardon Trump? SELL Yes 3¢ $304 526d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration? BUY No 14¢ $1,000 529d
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? BUY No 12¢ $2,000 529d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? SELL No 100¢ $10,677 534d
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? BUY No 41¢ $4,382 537d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $87 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 546d
Will Syria hold national elections by January 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $180 548d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 556d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 557d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 557d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 557d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 557d
Pump.fun banned in the US before 2025? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 557d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records