Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ae2…ff6c other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$692 (-37%) realized −$691 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$182
14 days−$244
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$254
sports 23% −$323
politics 7% −$60
crypto 6% +$1
world 5% −$49
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -49.3% -54.1% 19% 19% -40.7%
≤30d 40 -47.7% -52.7% 25% 22% -35.5%
≤90d 60 -47.8% -52.8% 23% 22% -41.7%
all 74 -44.2% -49.5% 27% 23% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 23% -44.4%
10% -54.3% 20% -49.7%
15% -58.7% 18% -54.6%
20% -62.8% 12% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$691
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 78
History coverage362d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? No 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $8 +$19 +234%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $19 −$19 -98%
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $27 −$15 -54%
Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $7 −$6 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $79 −$77 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 +$39 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 25 $44 +$120 +273%
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $40 −$5 -13%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Ghana finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 23 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 23 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 22 $43 +$9 +22%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iran finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 21 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $60 +$14 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$6 +43%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $104 −$9 -9%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$21 +43%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $48 −$40 -83%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 16 $6 +$3 +53%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $22 −$22 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner May 16 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? May 15 $10 −$2 -16%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 60¢ $51 35m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Paraguay 42¢ $17 49m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 29¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 29¢ $8 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 49¢ $19 6h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $19 28h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $17 2d
Will DR Congo finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 22¢ $7 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 18¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Cape Verde finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr BUY No 49¢ $7 3d
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 40¢ $79 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $40 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $45 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 11¢ $5 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2026- BUY 34¢ $20 4d
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 5¢ $5 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL No 91¢ $17 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL No 91¢ $8 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL No 91¢ $91 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL No 91¢ $48 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 24¢ $44 5d
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.83 · official $49.83 (match) · 150 history records