Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5adf…a5e7 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,771 (+10%) realized +$12,771 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate68%117W / 55L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$716per market
Trades / day107.5pace
Fees−$3,642est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 32d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,572
other 0% −$4
crypto 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.8% -8.8% 66% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 156 +13.2% +2.4% 67% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 172 +27.4% +15.2% 68% 4% -8.4%
all 172 +27.4% +15.2% 68% 4% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.2% 4% -8.4%
10% +4.2% 3% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -5.9% 3% -25.2%
20% -15.1% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,354) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.32 per $1 lost it wins $3.32
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,771
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses117 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3,642
Open positions0
Markets (closed)172 / 172
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$716
Trades / day107.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 172 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3,613 −$22 -1%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1,173 −$38 -3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $149 +$3 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $328 +$8 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $387 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $369 +$8 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $461 +$13 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1,672 +$71 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $147 +$3 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $879 +$5 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $636 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $544 +$11 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $288 +$5 +2%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $187 −$6 -3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $73 +$2 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $93 +$2 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $897 +$15 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $499 −$4 -1%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 15 $2,079 −$29 -1%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $374 +$7 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $1,507 +$39 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $358 +$8 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $255 $0 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 12 $230 −$17 -7%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $682 +$16 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $218 +$9 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $258 −$14 -6%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $248 +$5 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $34 −$1 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $62 +$1 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $2,137 +$38 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1,777 −$13 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $680 −$12 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $2,062 +$37 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $328 −$5 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,785 +$35 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $651 +$11 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $34 $0 -1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $147 −$3 -2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $544 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $13 $0 +4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $12 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $600 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $2 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $5 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $311 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $230 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $11 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $251 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $116 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $1 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $5 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $67 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $110 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $70 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $1 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $3 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $123 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $25 5h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $34 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $4 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $161 5h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $74 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $62 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $79 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $13 6h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL Chicago White Sox 37¢ $27 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 48¢ $226 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records