Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5add…10df
weather · 112 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$296 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$265 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses57 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)104 / 112
History coverage202d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 8 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $21 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-58%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 64¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +224%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this May 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Apr 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wales win? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy A Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $20 +$2 +12%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 19 $1 $0 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? Mar 09 $1 +$2 +246%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8? Mar 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 23? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 13? Feb 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C or higher on February 13 Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 16? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 18? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 28 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Feb 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Featur Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Feb 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on De Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December Feb 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? Feb 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 22% −$103
weather 21% −$44
tech 18% −$21
world 11% −$11
culture 10% −$20
crypto 6% −$25
economics 5% −$26
politics 5% −$22
finance 2% −$27
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 22h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 9¢ $2 28h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 21d
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24d
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 24d
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene BUY Yes 13¢ $10 24d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 29d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $7 29d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 91¢ $5 33d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 89¢ $5 33d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $5 49d
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 49d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 78¢ $5 65d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 89d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 78¢ $20 89d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or higher on March 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 95d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 96d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 96d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 96d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 96d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 97d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or below on March 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 97d
Will Wales win? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.7% +30.9% 67% 33% -0.7%
≤30d 11 -6.3% -15.2% 55% 45% -52.0%
≤90d 23 -20.4% -28.0% 57% 39% -29.1%
all 104 -19.0% -26.8% 55% 37% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 37% -21.3%
10% -33.8% 24% -28.9%
15% -40.2% 15% -35.7%
20% -46.0% 10% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.09 · official $107.66 (match) · 408 history records