Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5adb…a491 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$3
other 15% −$10
politics 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
culture 4% $0
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 23% 15% -10.2%
≤90d 13 +1.8% -7.9% 23% 15% -10.2%
all 48 -5.7% -14.7% 38% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 6% -10.5%
10% -22.8% 2% -19.0%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage399d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $58 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $95 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $71 −$3 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $1 $0 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $14 −$2 -11%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Dec 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 -18%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $5 $0 +5%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
Will Alexander Zverev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $15 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will River Plate win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -34%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 01 $1 $0 -38%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 29 $19 $0 +1%
Solana above $200 on May 30? May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 23–30? May 28 $4 −$4 -93%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 27 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $4 −$1 -39%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Thunder be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 22 $26 $0 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or below on May May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 17 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $37 35m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $6 35m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $50 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $50 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $49 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $8 29h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $21 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $3 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $19 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 47h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $46 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $47 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $42 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $25 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $9 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $11 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.73 · official $42.73 (match) · 203 history records