Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5ad5…37b9 sports 984 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$172,923 (+103%) realized +$172,923 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +154% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +95% what you keep after slip
Net edge+95%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%512W / 597L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$1,920est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$25,779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$39,488
sports 45% +$27,879
world 3% +$2,960
crypto 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+129.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 -47.7% -52.6% 21% 21% +40.9%
≤30d 296 +60.9% +45.6% 43% 43% +32.0%
≤90d 1109 +153.9% +129.7% 46% 46% +30.4%
all 1109 +153.9% +129.7% 46% 46% +30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +129.7% 46% +30.4%
10% ← realistic here +107.7% 45% +17.9%
15% +87.6% 41% +6.6%
20% +69.2% 38% -3.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +154% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +204% → late +104% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$34 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.37 per $1 lost it wins $4.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$25,779
Realized+$172,923
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses512 / 597
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$1,920
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1109 / 984
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$170
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1109 Trades
no open positions (218 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Crystal Palace FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: FC Südtirol (-1.5) Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zimbabwe win on 2025-11-13? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Russia win on 2025-11-15? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Pelicans vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-11-05? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Blue Jackets (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard win on 2025-12-21? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Chelsea (-1.5) Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Red Star FC vs. AS Nancy-Lorraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
SSC Bari vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AS Saint-Étienne win on 2026-03-21? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Venezia FC vs. Delfino Pescara 1936: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Utah vs. Sharks Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw? Jun 25 $85 −$85 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Jun 25 $14 +$29 +211%
Will Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Clermont Foot 63 vs. Rodez Aveyron Football: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-08? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $238 −$238 -100%
US Cremonese vs. US Lecce: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $47 −$47 -100%
SC Heerenveen vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $6 +$25 +403%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-04-05? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Albacete Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $282 −$282 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Heat (-6.5) Jun 25 $171 +$464 +272%
Santos FC vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. BSC Young Boys: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 241.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SK Brann vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Chile win on 2025-11-15? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-01-14? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings: O/U 238.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Omaha Mavericks vs. South Dakota Coyotes: O/U 150.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-09? Jun 25 $0 −$14 -16111%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Seton Hall Pirates: O/U 136.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $218 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 88¢ $326 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 90¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 90¢ $1,062 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,119 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $56 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 93¢ $1 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 93¢ $595 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 93¢ $2 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 56¢ $6 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 59¢ $379 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-4.5) BUY South Africa 83¢ $183 20h
Spread: Korea Republic (-3.5) BUY South Africa 51¢ $0 21h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Scotland 32¢ $0 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $18 24h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $8 24h
Spread: Morocco (-5.5) BUY Haiti 71¢ $1 24h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Scotland 81¢ $4 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $25 26h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 67¢ $7,549 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 47¢ $29 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 47¢ $88 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 47¢ $2,032 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 47¢ $3,200 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 50¢ $12 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Senegal 71¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,778.78 · official $25,774.93 (match) · 3500 history records