Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad5…424b world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 18% −$1
politics 16% $0
sports 13% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
all 33 +0.3% -9.2% 24% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage289d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $35 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $4 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 17 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 13 $2 $0 +8%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $34 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15? Sep 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $30 18h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $19 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $28 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 63¢ $30 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $26 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 63¢ $3 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $15 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $5 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $5 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $30 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $8 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $22 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $34 272d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $34 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.71 · official $32.71 (match) · 142 history records