Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5ad4…6866 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3,990 (-3%) realized −$16,038 · open +$12,048
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,381per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2,426est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26,688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$6,545
other 6% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +50.3% +36.0% 38% 38% +36.9%
≤30d 24 +36.3% +23.4% 50% 46% -13.0%
≤90d 24 +36.3% +23.4% 50% 46% -13.0%
all 24 +36.3% +23.4% 50% 46% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.4% 46% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here +11.5% 46% -21.4%
15% +0.8% 42% -29.0%
20% -9.1% 42% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$6,424) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,532 vs −$5,000 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$26,688
Realized−$16,038
Unrealized+$12,048
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,426
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6,381
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 88¢ $14,640 $26,688 +$12,048 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,439 −$1,400 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $1,387 −$1,349 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2,397 −$2,337 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,216 +$8,784 +723%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2,521 −$2,457 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1,391 −$1,356 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $7,245 +$6,755 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $6,424 +$5,576 +87%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $750 +$1,750 +233%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $5,380 +$4,820 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $9,750 −$452 -5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $4,574 −$248 -5%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2,128 +$2,972 +140%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $4,574 −$3,013 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,106 +$4,494 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2,687 −$1,726 -64%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $1,858 +$3,242 +175%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $6,079 +$4,271 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $15,717 +$5,358 +34%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 06 $1,603 −$1,574 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $11,192 +$6,108 +55%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 06 $5,119 −$5,040 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $6,069 +$250 +4%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 05 $39,045 −$39,045 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $14,868 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1,439 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $1,387 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,397 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,216 47h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,465 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,391 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1,498 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $134 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $134 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $4,617 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $7,245 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 30¢ $733 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,687.50 · official $26,687.50 (match) · 247 history records