Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5ad3…e160 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$10
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$105
other 19% +$16
sports 14% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.3% -17.1% 39% 39% -10.2%
≤30d 37 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 41% -9.4%
≤90d 37 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 41% -9.4%
all 37 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 41% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 41% -9.4%
10% -23.9% 32% -18.1%
15% -31.2% 30% -26.0%
20% -38.0% 24% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Marcelo Flores: 1+ goals Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $15 +$46 +302%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$5 +18%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Marcelo Flores: 1+ goals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$14 -87%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $41 +$39 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$11 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$10 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$59 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $66 −$34 -52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$8 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$58 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$42 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$15 +289%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $15 +$7 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain BUY 1¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 24¢ $15 7h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 47¢ $15 7h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $28 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 43¢ $10 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 3¢ $57 42h
Marcelo Flores: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o BUY 56¢ $81 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 2¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $16 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $16 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $28 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.86 · official $24.85 · 74 history records