Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad2…63b7 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,585 (-46%) realized −$4,585 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 24L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$1,963
14 days−$4,946
30 days−$4,946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$3,273
sports 24% −$1,355
crypto 3% −$319
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-61.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -79.0% -81.0% 0% 0% -82.6%
≤30d 27 -57.6% -61.6% 11% 11% -55.5%
≤90d 27 -57.6% -61.6% 11% 11% -55.5%
all 27 -57.6% -61.6% 11% 11% -55.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.6% 11% -55.5%
10% -65.3% 11% -59.7%
15% -68.7% 11% -63.6%
20% -71.7% 11% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$277 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage13d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $219 −$214 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $199 −$195 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $100 −$98 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $283 −$277 -98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $206 −$48 -23%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $340 −$29 -8%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,092 −$1,071 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,332 −$1,304 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $994 −$978 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $65 −$63 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $586 −$522 -89%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $470 −$454 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $222 −$222 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $599 −$212 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $877 +$590 +67%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $205 −$111 -54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $306 +$631 +206%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $728 +$470 +64%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 −$16 -19%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $99 −$17 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 13¢ $219 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 20h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $199 44h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 35¢ $283 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $65 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $214 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,092 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $135 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 7d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $103 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,332 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $994 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $65 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $52 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $12 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $298 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $287 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $93 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $99 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $97 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $164 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,466 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $877 11d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $103 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records