Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad2…3a5d other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,097 (-3%) realized −$1,101 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate61%20W / 13L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$946per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$1,841
14 days−$1,399
30 days−$1,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1,200
other 38% −$2,628
tech 12% +$106
sports 7% +$195
finance 1% −$17
crypto 0% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -3.8% -13.0% 69% 38% -18.8%
≤30d 28 -13.6% -21.8% 64% 32% -13.1%
≤90d 33 -14.3% -22.4% 61% 27% -13.0%
all 33 -14.3% -22.4% 61% 27% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 27% -13.0%
10% -29.9% 12% -21.3%
15% -36.6% 3% -28.9%
20% -42.8% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,411) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$354 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage42d
Avg bet$946
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 90¢ $633 $637 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $601 +$33 +6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $538 +$64 +12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $443 +$94 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $405 +$39 +10%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $427 −$24 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,852 −$2,424 -85%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,464 +$389 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,248 +$216 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,477 +$769 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,411 −$1,411 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $1,487 −$8 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2,995 +$404 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $699 +$18 +3%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $1,030 −$334 -32%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $814 +$216 +26%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,098 +$490 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,025 +$70 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $272 +$11 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $865 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 07 $199 −$199 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 05 $831 +$4 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $941 +$258 +27%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $1,001 −$58 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1,261 +$26 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,171 +$196 +17%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $183 −$8 -4%
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? May 26 $16 −$13 -85%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $380 −$17 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 24 $624 +$12 +2%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 20 $619 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $635 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 95¢ $601 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $602 9h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $538 24h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $443 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 80¢ $443 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $405 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $403 37h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $427 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 13¢ $428 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,852 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,464 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,248 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,246 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,477 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1,480 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $55 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $67 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $335 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $982 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,411 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $721 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $717 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 93¢ $699 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 25¢ $6 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $0 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $0 8d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.61 · official $636.61 (match) · 192 history records