Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ad1…35d0 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 339d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$432 (-64%) realized −$283 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -97% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -98% what you keep after slip
Net edge-98%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 339d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$405
sports 19% −$102
world 11% −$55
other 8% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-97.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -97.4% -97.6% 0% 0% -96.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -97.6% 0% -96.8%
10% -97.9% 0% -97.1%
15% -98.1% 0% -97.4%
20% -98.3% 0% -97.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -97% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$72 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage339d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-37%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-57%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) IR Iran 9¢ 1¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-85%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Egypt 5¢ 1¢ $25 $6 −$20 (-78%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Egypt 17¢ 4¢ $22 $5 −$17 (-76%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) IR Iran 2¢ 0¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2? Nov 02 $22 −$22 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 02 $100 −$84 -84%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1? Nov 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? Jul 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Jul 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY Egypt 5¢ $26 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 2¢ $26 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 17¢ $22 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 9¢ $51 1h
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2? BUY No 24¢ $6 236d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2? BUY No 29¢ $16 236d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 236d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1? BUY No 0¢ $5 236d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 339d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 339d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 339d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 339d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 339d
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 339d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.89 · official $75.02 · 16 history records