Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ad0…6983 other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$37 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days+$75
14 days+$4
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$192
other 37% −$214
sports 10% +$166
crypto 4% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 62% -6.8%
≤30d 26 -7.8% -16.6% 58% 50% -10.1%
≤90d 29 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 45% -11.5%
all 29 -12.9% -21.2% 52% 45% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 45% -11.5%
10% -28.7% 24% -19.9%
15% -35.6% 17% -27.7%
20% -41.9% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$49 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage73d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 72¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+93%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $13 $15 +$3 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 13¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 10¢ $30 $1 −$29 (-96%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$42 -41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 −$123 -61%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $152 +$98 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$140 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $401 −$36 -9%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $111 −$102 -92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$100 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $341 +$41 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 17 $80 +$16 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 14 $40 −$30 -74%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$25 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $293 +$3 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $1,218 −$69 -6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $914 −$51 -6%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 1m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $59 21m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 33m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 44h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 33¢ $59 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $61 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $200 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $54 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $171 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $171 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.83 · official $67.83 (match) · 176 history records