Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:05:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac8…7b39 tech 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31,511 (-73%) realized −$31,458 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +77% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,151per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34,504
14 days−$37,452
30 days−$37,452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 88% −$37,252
sports 9% +$498
world 2% +$5,478
other 1% −$53
crypto 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+60.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 13 -44.9% -50.1% 31% 31% -90.4%
all 16 +77.0% +60.2% 38% 38% -77.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +60.2% 38% -77.3%
10% ← realistic here +44.8% 38% -79.5%
15% +30.8% 31% -81.4%
20% +18.0% 31% -83.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -89% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +77% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +254% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,245 vs −$3,895 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$31,458
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage109d
Avg bet$2,151
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $94 −$23 (-19%)
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $22,347 −$22,006 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $12,836 −$12,499 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 07 $814 −$790 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $417 −$402 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 07 $337 −$325 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 07 $600 −$585 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $664 −$645 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $205 −$200 -98%
Furman Paladins vs. Connecticut Huskies Apr 10 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5) Mar 21 $1,000 +$991 +99%
Spread: BYU Cougars (-2.5) Mar 20 $300 +$297 +99%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) Mar 20 $300 +$274 +91%
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 19 $947 +$255 +27%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Mar 19 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 03 $309 +$4,959 +1607%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $225 +$696 +309%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $413 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 43¢ $440 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 68¢ $207 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 44¢ $845 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 65¢ $310 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 43¢ $483 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 42¢ $110 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 64¢ $406 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 41¢ $651 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 40¢ $107 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.17 · official $165.13 (match) · 254 history records