Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5ac7…5a94 crypto 136 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+10%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%95W / 41L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day76.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +7.7% -2.5% 70% 68% -3.1%
≤30d 136 +7.7% -2.5% 70% 68% -3.1%
≤90d 136 +7.7% -2.5% 70% 68% -3.1%
all 136 +7.7% -2.5% 70% 68% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 68% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 65% -12.4%
15% -20.4% 46% -20.9%
20% -28.2% 28% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses95 / 41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $6 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records