Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5ac6…e020 sports 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,674 (-4%) realized −$1,774 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate60%228W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$441est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$360
14 days−$232
30 days−$1,222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,416
other 0% +$7
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 59% -13.8%
≤30d 100 -3.8% -12.9% 58% 54% -15.7%
≤90d 377 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 46% -14.6%
all 377 -10.8% -19.3% 60% 46% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 46% -14.6%
10% -27.0% 31% -22.8%
15% -34.1% 18% -30.3%
20% -40.5% 10% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$63 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$289
Realized−$1,774
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses228 / 149
Est. fees paid−$441
Open positions1
Markets (closed)377 / 352
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ 96¢ $189 $289 +$100 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 30? Jun 18 $10 −$21 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $11 −$22 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 28? Jun 18 $7 −$13 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 30? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 30? Jun 18 $7 −$14 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 30? Jun 18 $1 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 28? Jun 18 $5 −$11 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 23? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on March 31? Jun 18 $4 −$8 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 27? Jun 18 $4 −$8 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 28? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 28? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -200%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -201%
Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March Jun 18 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 30? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 24? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Jun 18 $3 −$5 -201%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on March 31? Jun 18 $1 −$2 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on March 31? Jun 18 $3 −$6 -201%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $166 +$27 +16%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $170 +$7 +4%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $131 +$68 +52%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $238 +$53 +22%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $157 +$43 +27%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $142 +$85 +60%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $113 +$87 +76%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $123 −$122 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $119 +$78 +66%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $194 −$37 -19%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $107 −$104 -96%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $194 −$192 -99%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $222 +$27 +12%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $117 +$80 +69%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $129 +$66 +51%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $76 +$74 +97%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $121 +$76 +63%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $125 −$124 -99%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $128 +$52 +40%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $74 +$25 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $191 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 97¢ $193 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 83¢ $166 2h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $100 17h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $6 17h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Daniel Rincon 75¢ $6 17h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano SELL Stefano Napolitano 28¢ $27 17h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 57¢ $58 19h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 54¢ $109 19h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym SELL Titouan Droguet 100¢ $200 19h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym BUY Titouan Droguet 65¢ $131 22h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 53¢ $107 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 97¢ $292 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 79¢ $238 23h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $200 23h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 78¢ $157 27h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 46¢ $75 44h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 56¢ $113 44h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom SELL Titouan Droguet 54¢ $28 44h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Titouan Droguet 55¢ $29 44h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 61¢ $123 2d
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 56¢ $113 2d
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon SELL Raphael Collignon 99¢ $198 2d
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 59¢ $119 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 53¢ $157 2d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $194 2d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Henrique Rocha 2¢ $4 2d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 53¢ $107 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 64¢ $194 3d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 98¢ $196 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.35 · official $295.50 · 3500 history records