Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac6…b948 crypto 111 markets active 13h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$100 (-6%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%71W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.6% -52.6% 25% 25% -51.0%
≤30d 18 -13.5% -21.7% 39% 39% -28.4%
≤90d 111 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 43% -16.6%
all 111 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -16.6%
10% -22.1% 31% -24.6%
15% -29.6% 23% -31.9%
20% -36.5% 15% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses71 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 111
History coverage73d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$7 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$18 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 17 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 08 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 26 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 26 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 26 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 06 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 06 $22 −$9 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 06 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 06 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 06 $13 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 06 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records