Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5ac5…7018 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$4
other 26% +$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% +$10
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -10.2%
all 44 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -8.9%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage484d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $34 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $21 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $18 −$4 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Dec 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $19 $0 -1%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Pacers beat the Cavaliers 4-1? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $23 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 28 $22 $0 +2%
Mehmet Oz confirmed as Medicare and Medicaid Administrator? Mar 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 23 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Albania beat England Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $21 +$1 +4%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 19 $20 +$1 +3%
George Washington vs. Fordham Mar 05 $21 −$1 -3%
Central Connecticut vs. Chicago State Mar 04 $10 +$10 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $34 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $38 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.25 · official $39.25 (match) · 119 history records