Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5ac2…5428 weather 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%69W / 6L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$17
other 24% −$1
politics 21% −$1
weather 17% $0
world 3% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 54 +0.1% -9.5% 94% 6% -9.6%
all 75 +0.3% -9.2% 92% 8% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 4% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses69 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage118d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 15? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 7? May 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 7? May 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C or higher on May 7? May 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May May 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on April 19 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19? May 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 18? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on April 19? May 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 18? May 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or below on April 18? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 18 May 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on April 19 May 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on April 18? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on April 19 May 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on April 19 May 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on April 19? May 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 9? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 9? Apr 18 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 9? Apr 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 9? Apr 18 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 9? Apr 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 9? Apr 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 9? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Ap Apr 18 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 9? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 9? Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 9? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 9? Apr 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9? Apr 18 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9? Apr 18 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 9? Apr 18 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 9? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 9? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 9? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Apr 09 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 09 $18 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $52 40d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May BUY No 100¢ $90 48d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $52 48d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $55 48d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C or higher on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $66 48d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C or below on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 67d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $19 67d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $21 67d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or below on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on April 19 BUY No 100¢ $11 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on April 19 BUY No 100¢ $24 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on April 19 BUY No 100¢ $26 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY No 100¢ $27 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $28 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 18 BUY No 99¢ $22 67d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $25 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 9? BUY No 84¢ $9 76d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 9? BUY No 83¢ $8 76d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $9 76d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 4°C on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 76d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 9? BUY No 93¢ $10 76d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 9? BUY No 97¢ $11 76d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 9? BUY No 88¢ $11 76d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $12 76d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on April 9? BUY No 96¢ $11 76d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 76d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9? BUY No 98¢ $12 76d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 9? BUY No 99¢ $11 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.37 · official $52.37 (match) · 165 history records