Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5ab9…8f9d world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$505 (+5%) realized +$505 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,279per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,872now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$872
7 days+$872
14 days+$872
30 days+$1,055
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$398
other 23% +$812
politics 19% +$262
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +43.6% +29.9% 100% 100% +29.9%
≤30d 2 +26.0% +14.0% 100% 50% +13.2%
≤90d 3 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 67% +9.8%
all 8 -12.0% -20.4% 75% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 50% +3.5%
10% -28.0% 12% -6.4%
15% -35.0% 12% -15.4%
20% -41.4% 0% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$279 vs −$100 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.36 per $1 lost it wins $8.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$2,872
Realized+$505
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,279
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,018 +$872 +43%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2,209 +$184 +8%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $1,947 +$262 +13%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 18 $200 +$40 +20%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $1,968 +$39 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,693 +$276 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,871.79 · official $2,871.79 (match) · 20 history records