Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5A 0x5ab8…f4a6 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 22L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$5
sports 21% −$2
world 19% −$3
politics 7% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 22 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage90d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,319 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $1,217 −$2 -0%
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $54 $0 -0%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 23 $1,201 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 05 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Mar 26 $128 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,297 2h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $23 2h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,305 2h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 2h
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 2h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 3h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $353 3h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 3h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 24h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 25h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,282 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 25h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $29 25h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 26h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $14 27h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $885 27h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL No 100¢ $315 27h
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $29 27h
Will Sacramento Kings win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $30 28h
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY No 100¢ $1,201 28h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $198 62d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $199 62d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 66d
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records