Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5ab5…ff12 crypto 791 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,657 (-16%) realized −$11,655 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%338W / 452L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$91
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$5,676
sports 42% −$6,233
other 1% −$492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 238 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 42% -27.1%
all 790 -7.7% -16.5% 43% 40% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -24.7%
10% -24.5% 36% -31.9%
15% -31.8% 31% -38.4%
20% -38.5% 26% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$79 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$11,655
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses338 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)790 / 791
History coverage128d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 790 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $135 $133 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $81 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 24 $229 −$217 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 24 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 24 $140 −$123 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $46 −$19 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 24 $4 +$4 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$2 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 24 $22 −$19 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 24 $304 −$291 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 24 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 24 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$90 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 24 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$37 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$37 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$34 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 24 $60 −$19 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 24 $31 +$43 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $253 +$151 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 24 $50 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 24 $50 +$41 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 24 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 24 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 24 $41 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 24 $50 +$58 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$31 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 24 $40 −$26 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 24 $40 +$68 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$23 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$11 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$32 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 23 $255 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $40 −$29 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 23 $30 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 23 $30 +$48 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 23 $40 +$36 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 23 $29 −$12 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $137 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $81 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $229 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $16 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $17 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $140 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $20 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $28 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $20 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $304 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $100 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $30 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $190 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $100 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $40 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $30 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.10 · official $133.10 (match) · 1526 history records