Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aad…0256 sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$884 (-3%) realized −$883 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate85%93W / 17L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$492
7 days−$378
14 days−$378
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$151
crypto 35% −$367
other 6% −$691
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 77% 64% -22.7%
≤30d 30 +1.3% -8.4% 80% 63% -16.4%
≤90d 110 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 31% -12.6%
all 110 -2.9% -12.1% 85% 31% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 31% -12.6%
10% -20.5% 14% -21.0%
15% -28.2% 5% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 5% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$174 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$883
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses93 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage85d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Alexander Zverev 82¢ 81¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $99 +$25 +25%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Jun 19 $212 −$212 -100%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $98 +$91 +92%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $100 +$10 +10%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 18 $100 +$15 +15%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $100 +$53 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $101 +$16 +16%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $110 −$101 -92%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $101 +$32 +31%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $125 +$40 +32%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $112 +$13 +12%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $100 +$31 +31%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $100 +$19 +19%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $125 +$37 +30%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $99 +$25 +25%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $288 +$32 +11%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Harmony Tan vs Linda Fruhvirtova May 22 $250 +$37 +15%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $155 +$94 +60%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $127 +$29 +23%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar May 21 $119 +$9 +7%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $684 −$319 -47%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 21 $400 +$38 +10%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild May 20 $544 +$67 +12%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Jay Clarke May 20 $451 +$95 +21%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: August Holmgren vs Daniel Jade May 20 $418 +$31 +7%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Pedro Martinez May 19 $386 +$34 +9%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $354 +$30 +8%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Lautaro Midon vs Roberto Carballes B May 19 $329 +$27 +8%
Istanbul: Benjamin Hassan vs Filip Jianu May 19 $13 $0 +3%
Geneva Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Jaume Munar May 19 $145 +$4 +3%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea May 19 $301 +$22 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Cristina Bucsa May 19 $30 +$3 +9%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $272 +$27 +10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $244 +$29 +12%
Cervia: Sandro Kopp vs Max Alcala Gurri May 18 $226 +$17 +7%
Hamburg European Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus May 18 $207 +$20 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry May 18 $195 +$12 +6%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $181 +$13 +7%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 18 $170 +$11 +6%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 18 $160 +$10 +6%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $338 +$22 +6%
Geneva Open, Qualification: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 17 $73 +$2 +3%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery May 17 $318 +$20 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $18 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $18 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $22 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 82¢ $43 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti SELL Cosme de Ravel 100¢ $124 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 80¢ $95 2h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 80¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 86¢ $101 20h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $189 21h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 52¢ $98 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $110 22h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 91¢ $100 22h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $22 23h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $68 23h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti SELL Lucio Ratti 100¢ $25 23h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 87¢ $67 23h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 87¢ $16 23h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 87¢ $17 23h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $112 24h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 89¢ $100 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Kyrian Jacquet 100¢ $153 25h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 65¢ $100 26h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $117 27h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 86¢ $60 27h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 86¢ $37 27h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Linda Noskova 86¢ $4 27h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 70¢ $99 47h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $118 47h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke BUY Christopher OConnell 85¢ $100 2d
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Oliver Crawford $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.00 · official $99.01 (match) · 420 history records