Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5aaa…ee53 crypto 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$176 (+3%) realized +$200 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%147W / 156L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$28
14 days−$29
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$95
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -15.6% -23.6% 57% 43% -30.6%
≤30d 303 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 303 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -8.3%
all 303 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 47% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 43% -17.1%
15% -26.4% 39% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 32% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$200
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses147 / 156
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)303 / 309
History coverage30d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 64¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -33%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$10 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$22 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$58 +3021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 30 $40 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 30 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 30 $18 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $14 +$19 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 30 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 30 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 59m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.27 · official $5.78 · 2290 history records