trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 | Over | 93¢ | 92¢ | $18 | $18 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $13 | $14 | +$1 (+11%) |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? | Jun 02 | $13 | +$1 | +11% |
| Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 4.5 | May 23 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Mar 30 | $9 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on March 28 | Mar 30 | $193 | −$193 | -100% |
| Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns (W) | Mar 29 | $15 | +$1 | +10% |
| Spread: Cádiz CF (-1.5) | Mar 29 | $20 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Mar 28 | $1,362 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 28 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tisza win 80–89 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this | Mar 28 | $1,397 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this el | Mar 28 | $45 | −$5 | -12% |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Mar 28 | $1,345 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on | Mar 28 | $1,446 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? | Mar 28 | $1,361 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Clara Tauson be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | Mar 28 | $2,746 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will voter turnout be 68–71% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary elect | Mar 28 | $91 | +$23 | +25% |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? | Mar 28 | $1,398 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after | Mar 28 | $91 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Con | Mar 28 | $51 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | Mar 28 | $1,369 | −$10 | -1% |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Mar 28 | $1,348 | +$3 | +0% |
| Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial | Mar 28 | $166 | −$8 | -5% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | +10.9% | +0.4% | 100% | 100% | +0.4% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 52% | 19% | -10.6% |
| all | 21 | -2.0% | -11.3% | 52% | 19% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.3% | 19% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 5% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -27.6% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -34.7% | 0% | -34.1% |