Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5aa8…2bd9 sports 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$565 (-22%) realized −$565 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$243
14 days+$243
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$615
politics 7% +$67
other 1% −$15
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +56.1% +41.2% 60% 60% +71.9%
≤30d 6 +57.8% +42.8% 67% 67% +66.7%
≤90d 13 -2.8% -12.0% 46% 46% +35.9%
all 30 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 33% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 33% -29.3%
10% -30.4% 30% -36.0%
15% -37.1% 30% -42.2%
20% -43.3% 27% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$65 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$565
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage120d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $96 +$228 +238%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $92 +$12 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$47 +157%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $87 +$58 +67%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 04 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th May 01 $3 −$2 -95%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-06? Apr 30 $3 +$2 +67%
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie Mar 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) Mar 10 $40 +$27 +67%
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5 Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: The Otter Side vs Vantex Esports (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Mar 03 $333 −$66 -20%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 02 $50 +$67 +133%
Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-2.5) Mar 02 $22 −$12 -54%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Paris Gentle Mates - Game 2 Winner Mar 02 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs QoR (BO5) - VCL North America Pla Feb 28 $197 −$197 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Magdalena Frech Feb 27 $149 +$149 +100%
Mexican Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Sho Shimabukuro Feb 25 $187 −$187 -100%
Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 4.5 Feb 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Pune: Denis Yevseyev vs Jay Clarke Feb 24 $171 −$3 -2%
Kuzmanov vs. Crawford: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Feb 23 $182 −$4 -2%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League S Feb 23 $191 −$191 -100%
LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5 Feb 21 $78 +$132 +169%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Feb 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Sonego vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Feb 16 $73 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 40h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 74¢ $104 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $96 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $77 5d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $6 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $6 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $6 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $10 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $3 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $4 6d
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $6 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 26¢ $30 7d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 64¢ $92 27d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY No 59¢ $87 29d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 66¢ $2 46d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th BUY Yes $3 47d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Serie BUY Phantom 37¢ $67 98d
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) BUY Sashi Esport 60¢ $40 99d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? BUY No 46¢ $10 102d
Amen Thompson: Rebounds O/U 7.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 102d
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 102d
Josh Hart: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 26¢ $1 102d
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-03-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 102d
LoL: The Otter Side vs Vantex Esports (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs SELL The Otter Side 61¢ $7 107d
LoL: The Otter Side vs Vantex Esports (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs BUY The Otter Side 61¢ $140 107d
LoL: The Otter Side vs Vantex Esports (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs BUY The Otter Side 64¢ $193 107d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY M80 43¢ $50 107d
Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-2.5) SELL Al Najmah Saudi Club 13¢ $10 109d
Will Newcastle United Jets FC win on 2026-02-28? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records