Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa4…e8e1 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$566 (-6%) realized −$566 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%61W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$304
7 days+$304
14 days−$714
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$647
sports 28% +$725
other 16% −$356
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +71.6% +55.3% 60% 47% +46.4%
≤30d 103 +12.0% +1.4% 59% 49% -12.3%
≤90d 103 +12.0% +1.4% 59% 49% -12.3%
all 103 +12.0% +1.4% 59% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 49% -12.3%
10% -8.3% 38% -20.7%
15% -17.2% 28% -28.4%
20% -25.3% 24% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$68 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses61 / 42
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage17d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Arge Jun 28 $99 +$113 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $171 +$58 +34%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $10 +$133 +1290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$31 +119%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$10 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$55 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$33 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$33 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $468 −$450 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $359 +$84 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $223 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $222 +$132 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $147 +$73 +50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $95 +$48 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$56 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 7h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Will Arge BUY 46¢ $99 7h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $171 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $13 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 7d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $61 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $61 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 9d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records