Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5aa3…e30a sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$213 (+2%) realized +$213 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$64
crypto 24% +$4
other 23% +$142
tech 12% +$3
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 24 +7.0% -3.2% 100% 21% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 21% -7.9%
10% -12.4% 8% -16.8%
15% -20.9% 4% -24.8%
20% -28.7% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,121) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage195d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $179 $179 +$0 (+0%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 01 $279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 10? May 11 $278 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on April 25? Apr 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 25? Apr 28 $163 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $278 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $278 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Lakers Apr 01 $277 $0 +0%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 19 $30 +$27 +89%
Jazz vs. Timberwolves Mar 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $50 +$8 +16%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Mar 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $50? Mar 07 $1,325 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $6.50? Feb 28 $540 +$5 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $7.50? Feb 28 $778 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $215? Feb 21 $1,317 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Bulls Feb 08 $1,414 +$3 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of January? Jan 31 $1,412 +$1 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 29 $1,121 +$133 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 9? Jan 10 $1,277 +$3 +0%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $48 +$1 +1%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $106 +$2 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $413 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $179 1h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $279 31d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on May 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $278 50d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $163 63d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $116 63d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 100¢ $278 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $278 79d
Cavaliers vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 100¢ $277 86d
Warriors vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 86¢ $50 99d
Jazz vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 88¢ $50 99d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Pelicans 53¢ $30 99d
Hawks vs. Mavericks BUY Hawks 76¢ $50 99d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,325 112d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $6.50? BUY No 99¢ $540 120d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 23 above $7.50? BUY No 100¢ $778 120d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 16 above $215? BUY No 100¢ $1,317 126d
Nuggets vs. Bulls BUY Nuggets 100¢ $1,414 138d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,412 148d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,121 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,277 169d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $153 181d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $152 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $250 186d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $140 186d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $120 189d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $500 193d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $49 193d
Aster all time high by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $57 195d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $48 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.95 · official $278.95 (match) · 55 history records