Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5A 0x5aa2…d7d0 crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,064 (-0%) realized −$1,044 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%391W / 4L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,693per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,758now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$552
14 days+$1,235
30 days−$6,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,813
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 130 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 367 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.8%
all 395 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% ← realistic here -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$4,483) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$2,372 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$6,758
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses391 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)395 / 397
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$2,693
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 99¢ $4,792 $4,775 −$17 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,986 $1,983 −$3 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $6,437 +$67 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $264 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27? Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $697 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $1,590 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $974 +$15 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? Jun 27 $266 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $710 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,809 +$26 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,090 +$32 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $295 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,697 +$13 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $656 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $894 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,783 +$17 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,459 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,825 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,891 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $305 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $488 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $602 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $848 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,681 +$49 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $2,480 +$21 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $606 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,706 +$25 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3,722 +$98 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $614 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,028 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,639 +$21 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,497 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,499 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $4,476 +$55 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $136 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $4,756 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1,245 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $2,073 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $3,349 +$16 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $4,792 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $1,987 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $3,024 10h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $3,412 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $10 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $99 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $12 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $45 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $98 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $72 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $23 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $100 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $5 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $999 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $152 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $255 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $93 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $349 32h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $88 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $98 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $98 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $17 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $24 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $170 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $55 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $248 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,758.25 · official $6,758.25 (match) · 3500 history records