Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5aa0…0d93 other 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$824 (+11%) realized +$824 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%99W / 109L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$1,157
14 days+$974
30 days+$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$892
sports 14% +$82
world 2% +$16
crypto 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +25.1% +13.2% 62% 62% +24.2%
≤30d 31 +3.5% -6.4% 52% 48% +13.4%
≤90d 204 -11.0% -19.5% 48% 47% +4.5%
all 208 -11.4% -19.8% 48% 47% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 47% +3.0%
10% -27.5% 44% -6.8%
15% -34.5% 39% -15.8%
20% -40.9% 28% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$15 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$824
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses99 / 109
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 212
History coverage196d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $6 +$26 +418%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $250 +$58 +23%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$7 +98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$10 +33%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$87 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,170 +$696 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$61 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +67%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$10 +128%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 −$97 -54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$28 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $177 +$131 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $999 +$211 +21%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$59 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$43 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $221 +$14 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +105%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07? May 22 $32 +$28 +90%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: Both Teams to Score May 19 $5 +$5 +114%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $90 +$11 +12%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $14 −$14 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 17 $6 +$3 +47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $34 +$11 +33%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: Draw at halftime? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 −$11 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $26 −$26 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$3 +123%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$3 +36%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $22 +$14 +62%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score May 11 $4 +$3 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $309 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $149 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY 37¢ $15 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 99¢ $40 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 73¢ $30 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 60¢ $40 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 42h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,011 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $159 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $42 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 5d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $82 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $179 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 59¢ $66 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $70 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,210 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 375 history records