Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5aa0…75d2 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$536 (-51%) realized −$521 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$416
14 days−$442
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$127
crypto 36% −$181
other 22% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.5% -45.3% 14% 14% -62.0%
≤30d 34 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -58.1%
≤90d 34 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -58.1%
all 34 -35.8% -41.9% 21% 21% -58.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 21% -58.1%
10% -47.5% 18% -62.1%
15% -52.6% 18% -65.8%
20% -57.2% 18% -69.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$521
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage16d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $49 +$80 +162%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$7 -13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $122 −$118 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $82 −$80 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$40 +152%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $32 −$6 -18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $158 −$155 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$7 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 02 $21 +$30 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $96 8m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $31 9m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 16m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 18m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 18m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 19m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $129 21m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 44m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Under 73¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $57 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $60 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $44 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $38 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $25 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $28 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $27 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $79 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.69 · official $124.69 (match) · 110 history records