Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a99…7171 weather 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-9%) realized −$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 78% −$23
crypto 9% −$9
other 8% −$13
sports 1% +$2
tech 1% −$5
world 1% −$5
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -33.5% -39.8% 52% 25% -19.4%
≤30d 93 -33.5% -39.8% 52% 25% -19.4%
≤90d 93 -33.5% -39.8% 52% 25% -19.4%
all 93 -33.5% -39.8% 52% 25% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 25% -19.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.6% 13% -27.2%
15% -50.8% 6% -34.2%
20% -55.6% 2% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)93 / 97
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 89¢ 100¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? No 94¢ 94¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 74¢ 76¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$12 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$11 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $28 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $61 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $50 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 37h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $31 37h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $17 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $14 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $6 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 24¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $10 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.67 · official $79.67 (match) · 201 history records