Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a96…bbfa crypto 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,048 (-7%) realized −$1,048 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate60%70W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$104
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,240
other 13% +$73
politics 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -19.1% -26.8% 58% 37% -20.7%
≤30d 23 -17.4% -25.2% 61% 39% -15.1%
≤90d 23 -17.4% -25.2% 61% 39% -15.1%
all 117 -16.4% -24.4% 60% 28% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 28% -16.5%
10% -31.6% 8% -24.5%
15% -38.2% 5% -31.8%
20% -44.3% 3% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$49 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,048
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses70 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage247d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $74 −$52 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $83 +$41 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$26 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $66 −$32 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$60 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$46 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 22 $96 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 22 $94 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Feb 22 $80 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Feb 22 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Feb 22 $129 +$17 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 22 $123 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 22 $106 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Feb 22 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 6PM ET Oct 30 $24 +$6 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 6PM ET Oct 30 $102 −$76 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6PM ET Oct 30 $125 −$125 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 5PM ET Oct 30 $413 +$20 +5%
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 4PM ET Oct 30 $186 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET Oct 30 $229 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET Oct 30 $337 +$19 +6%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET Oct 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 6PM ET Oct 29 $46 +$24 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET Oct 29 $36 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3PM ET Oct 29 $258 −$138 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10AM ET Oct 29 $158 +$20 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9AM ET Oct 29 $309 −$61 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8AM ET Oct 29 $197 +$24 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 27 $510 +$20 +4%
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale? Oct 27 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET Oct 27 $160 +$3 +2%
Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3AM ET Oct 27 $200 −$97 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $22 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $34 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $29 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 809 history records