Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a95…b81b crypto 972 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-2%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%494W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day54.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 484 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 46% -14.4%
≤30d 972 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 48% -13.0%
≤90d 972 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 48% -13.0%
all 972 -1.9% -11.2% 51% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 48% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 46% -21.3%
15% -27.5% 44% -28.9%
20% -34.6% 41% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses494 / 478
Open positions0
Markets (closed)972 / 972
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day54.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 972 Trades
no open positions (387 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1711 history records