Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5A 0x5a91…dd1b crypto 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$146 (+0%) realized +$135 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate67%278W / 137L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$795per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5,769now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$590
14 days+$590
30 days+$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$472
other 7% +$92
sports 4% +$485
politics 1% −$27
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 19 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤90d 157 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 1% -9.0%
all 415 -17.6% -25.5% 67% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 3% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -39.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -45.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$981) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$31 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$5,769
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses278 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions65
Markets (closed)415 / 480
History coverage150d
Avg bet$795
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? No 99¢ 99¢ $939 $942 +$4 (+0%)
Avaí FC vs. Cuiabá EC: Draw at halftime? No 100¢ 100¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 +$0 (+0%)
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $189 $191 +$3 (+1%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $171 $171 +$0 (+0%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $166 $165 −$0 (-0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: RS Berkane 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$0 (+0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 100¢ 100¢ $141 $141 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Difaâ Hassani El Jadida 0 - 3 Wydad Athletic Club? No 100¢ 100¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $137 $136 −$0 (-0%)
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: AS FAR O/U 0.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $131 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 3 - 1 RS Berkane? No 100¢ 100¢ $129 $129 +$0 (+0%)
OC Safi vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $127 $128 +$1 (+1%)
FathUnionSport vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 1.5 Over 98¢ 100¢ $123 $125 +$2 (+2%)
OC Safi vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: US Yacoub El Mansour 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 0 - 2 RS Berkane? No 100¢ 100¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $117 $119 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 0 - 3 RS Berkane? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Maghreb AS de Fès 0 - 0 RS Berkane? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 +$0 (+0%)
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Both Teams to Score Yes 99¢ 100¢ $97 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic O/U 1.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 21? Jun 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 21? Jun 21 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $587 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $4,918 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2,195 +$2 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 168.5 Jun 20 $138 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $310 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $2,942 +$1 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $256 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $939 +$11 +1%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 20 $1,668 +$2 +0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $662 +$6 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5,405 +$470 +9%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $981 +$20 +2%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 18 $1,227 +$14 +1%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 18 $366 +$4 +1%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 159.5 Jun 18 $1,149 +$52 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 20? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,000 on May 20, 9AM ET? May 20 $149 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 20, 9AM ET? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,145 on May 20, 9AM ET? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,800 on May 20, 9AM ET? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18? May 19 $5,309 +$5 +0%
Ethereum above 2,075 on May 18, 1AM ET? May 18 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,060 on May 18, 1AM ET? May 18 $155 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,045 on May 18, 1AM ET? May 18 $410 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,130 on May 18, 12AM ET? May 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on May 17? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 17? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 76,400 on May 18, 12AM ET? May 18 $154 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,100 on May 18, 12AM ET? May 18 $154 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 on May 17? May 18 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 17? May 18 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 16? May 18 $3,308 +$1,861 +56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $117 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2AM ET May 16 $636 −$633 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1AM ET May 16 $660 −$660 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET May 16 $421 −$419 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 15? May 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 15? May 15 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 15? May 15 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 15? May 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 15? May 15 $1,155 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 15 $2,875 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,600 on May 14, 11AM ET? May 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,200 on May 14, 11AM ET? May 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 2,180 on May 14, 11AM ET? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $444 4m
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY No 99¢ $495 6m
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $21 15m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $43 17m
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $38 18m
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: AS FAR O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $83 18m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $28 19m
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: Maghreb AS de Fès O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $137 21m
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $28 21m
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $16 23m
Exact Score: AS FAR 1 - 0 Kawkab AC? BUY No 100¢ $48 26m
Exact Score: AS FAR 0 - 0 Kawkab AC? BUY No 100¢ $34 26m
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: Kawkab AC O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $43 27m
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: AS FAR O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $48 27m
AS FAR vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $173 28m
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $5 28m
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 99¢ $16 28m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Draw at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $34 30m
COD Meknès leading at halftime? BUY No 100¢ $29 30m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $48 30m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $34 31m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $166 31m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: COD Meknès 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $43 32m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 32m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: COD Meknès 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $48 32m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 33m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: COD Meknès O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 34m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: Raja Club Athletic O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $50 35m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 35m
Raja Club Athletic vs. COD Meknès: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $3 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,768.76 · official $5,768.57 (match) · 1621 history records