Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a8e…664a other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$97 (-14%) realized −$91 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%10W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$57
14 days−$99
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$102
sports 26% +$28
crypto 10% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -30.7% -37.3% 24% 24% -25.7%
≤30d 33 -27.8% -34.7% 30% 30% -30.5%
≤90d 33 -27.8% -34.7% 30% 30% -30.5%
all 33 -27.8% -34.7% 30% 30% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.7% 30% -30.5%
10% -40.9% 21% -37.2%
15% -46.6% 21% -43.2%
20% -51.9% 15% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized−$91
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses10 / 23
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$10 +91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $40 +$9 +22%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$14 -69%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$4 -20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$6 -62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $20 −$8 -38%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $63 +$10 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 +$46 +360%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$5 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $14 −$5 -38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Argentina? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway vs. France end BUY 5¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $23 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 79¢ $27 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 71¢ $40 3d
Colombia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 36¢ $16 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 6¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $13 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 14¢ $10 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $20 3d
Portugal to win the second half? SELL Yes 91¢ $74 3d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 78¢ $63 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $183.65 · official $183.72 (match) · 74 history records